Superforecasting? here, let’s create a convenient narrative!!

Human beings are supposed to be intelligent creatures but if you speak to marketing or advertising experts, they will explain the vulnerability of humans to you. We are easily manipulated. That is why you see your neighbour’s car and you suddenly want one or you look at fashion trends set by celebrities, even when they simply do not make any sense whatsoever

But when scientists and statisticians begin using forecasts in a manipulative manner as we have seen during recent elections or to support spurious positions, that is when we have big trouble on our hands. And that is exactly where we are today

‘Conditioning’ is the key word

If I grab a group of 10 privileged children aged 15, who have travelled around the world with their parents since they were babies and have seen and done a number of things and set them an IQ test that asks them to describe what an aeroplane looks like and how it lands etc. They will no doubt have a fair idea from several instances of sitting at an airport watching planes take off and land and from chatting with their parents about it as they watched. If I then grab 10 children raised in poverty, who have never been to an airport and their parents only discuss how to get the next meal on the table at home, and I set the same questions before them and they score low, how on earth can one state that they are stupid and of a low IQ or infer that they are of an inferior race?

Well, that indeed, is what some super forecasters would have us believe. That some low IQ folks are simply inferior

I am not a scientist but would be surprised that if you pick 10 babies (2 week old babies) up and put them in the exact same environment, expose them to the exact same conditions: parents without stress who have well-paid jobs and can relax when they get home and talk to their children about fun stuff, plan holidays, travel etc. You will find those children (ceteris paribus) will develop at a similar pace and their level of intelligence is highly unlikely to be miles apart

There is a huge combination of factors that contribute to what people know as they grow up and the environment around them and what they are exposed to in terms of daily experiences form a huge component of that. So, when we want to begin crafting these daft narratives about which groups have a higher IQ and all that trash, it needs to be qualified and within context. It’s like saying rural children are daft because they can explain how a traffic jam happens or what a pileup of cars on a 12 lane highway feels like! And crediting children who grew up in London or New York with being smarter because they can explain how noisy traffic is and what a traffic jam feels like. Unfortunately, those who seek the narrative that suits them will continue to do that and unfortunately, the more they put out there, the greater the chances of some beginning to buy into those ideas