Elon Musk made some suggestions on twitter this week, which has been roundly derided. But in truth, what will Ukraine see as victory?
How do you exert authority over people who do not feel part of a country?
It is a very difficult conundrum
Take Scotland for example. We are led to believe Scotland want out of the union. Ok, so they get a referendum and those wanting to leave the UK lost the referendum. Now, they want another referendum. Where do you draw the line. At some point, those wishing to leave the UK will win a referendum right? So, what about all the referendums they lost? As circumstances change and sentiments change, outcome of votes could also change. Now, is the solution to continue to deny them another referendum? Why not set some rules? —— only one referendum in any 50 year period for instance, if the outcome of a referendum is at least a 10% margin, the result should stick for at least 50 years. If David Cameron had set some rules for the Brexit and Scottish referendums that he presided over, we wouldn’t be in the mess we currently are in.
But back to Ukraine. Ukraine can never defeat Russia. It is that simple. I am not a Russian-sympathiser as I do not support war in any way, shape or form, BUT, if you look back in history, you will see just how resilient Russians are. They are very tough. I do not see any scenario in which Ukraine will win a war against Russia. And if Ukraine begin to receive too much in support, this will become WWIII and surely NOBODY sane wants another world war. So, what is the solution?
First there needs to be a ceasefire. Everything needs to be on the table. But the needless and pointless killings – which war is – need to stop, and then go from there
If as Russia allege, many Ukrainians want to be part of Russia as they are being ill-treated in Ukraine, well, why not invite these folk to move to Russia and become Russians that way? Offer them land, help them relocate, build new towns for them in Russia etc. I fail to see how annexation can be the solution. Now, if for any reason, offering Russian citizenship and relocation is not what those folk want, then perhaps a discussion can be had around granting them real autonomy within Ukraine. But some will argue that has already been attempted with Crimea
I am not sure that the world will remain stable, if countries begin making moves for land in other sovereign nations just because there is a claim that some folk want out or feel they are being ill-treated etc. Russia could be the “big brother” to Ukraine by helping them to improve the lot of the east Ukrainian, Russian-speaking folk who perhaps feel a little unappreciated in Ukraine.
If Ukraine retake all 5 annexed cities today and manage to kick the Russians out from every inch of Ukraine and also retake Crimea, how is that going to end this war? How many months before some of those folk kick off again and claim they feel they are not being treated fairly in Ukraine? And why should they have to relocate?
Neither side appear to have a solution.
Ukraine was having internal issues well before the Russians attacked. All those issues should be brought to the table and a lasting solution found. But first, Russian need to end the military intervention. This situation cannot be solved by military intervention.